It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

On several occasions in the history of science, different areas of research, sharing a priori nothing in common and sometimes belonging to completely different fields of science, were shown to be ...

Last month I reviewed the excellent book, Superforecasting by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock. Now while we can’t predict the future, we certainly can create a model for the probability of an event ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

We live in a world where a lot of things seem to happen by pure chance, from winning the Lotto to losing your car keys. But the truth is, the likelihood of many everyday things happening is heavily ...